Heat Waves and Tipping Points – Gwynne Dyer

July 20, 2023

17 July 2023

Heat Waves and Tipping Points

By Gwynne Dyer

“What we’re seeing is climate impacts that scientists thought would accompany certain temperatures happening far more rapidly, with far more devastating effects than had been forecast,” said Dr. Simon Nicholson of the Forum for Climate Engineering Assessment at American University.

“We didn’t think that the Arctic would crash by now, and yet it’s almost gone. We didn’t think we’d be seeing these wildfires in Australia and the United States and elsewhere with the frequency and severity that they’re being seen.

“Given that we’re at about one degree Celsius [+1.1°C, actually], we thought those were far-distant prospects. So 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial averages could turn out to be far more devastating than had been imagined when that target was set as the threshold for international action.”

Last month was the planet’s hottest June on record, and probably the hottest in about 12,000 years. This month is shaping up to be the hottest July, and there’s a good chance that August will also break the record, because the relentless upward creep of global heating is being supercharged by the return of the cyclical El Niño phenomenon in the eastern Pacific.

It’s not just very high temperatures – more than one-third of the US population is now under extreme heat warnings, and the city of Phoenix is having its 18^th successive day over 110°F (43.3°C) – but the heat lasts into the night, too.

Southern Europe is the same from Spain to Turkey, with daytime temperatures in the low forties Celsius and little relief at night. Europe, which keeps better records on this than the United States, counted 61,000 heat-related deaths last year. This year will be much higher.

South and Southeast Asia had their heat waves in April and May (45°C and up in India and Thailand), and now it’s time for torrential rain and landslides in Japan, Korea and China. (That’s really due to the heat, too: high temperatures mean higher evaporation, which means much more rain.)

All quiet in the southern hemisphere, where it’s still winter, but El Niño probably means record bushfires in Australia by December. Worrisome, because they have just discovered that the 2020 fires were big and hot enough to drive the smoke up into the stratosphere, where it started destroying ozone and expanding the ozone hole again.

El Niño-linked droughts in South America and southern Africa, of course – and did I mention that there are still 500 wildfires burning in Canada?

Well, what did you think that ‘global heating’ would be like? No surprises there, except that what the scientists thought would be happening around 2030 is happening now.

2029 or 2030 is when we were scheduled to breach the ‘aspirational’ never-exceed level of 1.5°C higher average global temperature if emissions continued on the current track, but somebody forgot to allow for the fact that there’s an El Niño every three to seven years. Oops!

Now the World Meteorological Organisation is saying that global average temperature is likely to exceed +1.5°C at least once, but perhaps a number of times, between now and 2027. How likely? 66% likely.

“It’s the first time in history that it’s more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5°C”, said Adam Scaife, the head of long-range prediction at Britain’s Met Office Hadley Centre. And that means that we will be getting into the territory where the ‘tipping points’ may be lurking.

Ever since 2015, we have been operating with two ‘never-exceeds’. The big, flashing red lights, with sirens blaring, are at +2°C, because after that we would be crossing lots of tipping points: Arctic sea ice gone, Amazon forest turning into savannah, methane coming out of melting permafrost, lots of things causing rapid, unstoppable further warming.

But they also set the lower, ‘aspirational’ never-exceed target of +1.5°C because they were worried that some of the tipping points might activate even before +2°C. ‘Aspirational’ because even in 2015 it didn’t look very likely that we would be able cut our emissions that rapidly.

That’s what we are heading for right now, and the forecast is that we’ll be in zone for extremes past +1.5°C until 2027. Then, if all goes well, the El Niño will have been replaced by the cooler La Niña, and the global average temperature will fall back to normal. Well, to a new ‘normal – say, +1.3°C.

That would be nice. If we have been really efficient about reducing our emissions in the meantime (miracles do happen), we might not see +1.5°C again until the early 2030s. But if we cross some tipping points in the next few years, they won’t go back to ‘normal’ afterwards. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work like that.

Abyss – Gair

July 20, 2023

MacCrew #2

July 20, 2023

March 22nd, 2007

MacCrew #2

Work today was good. Real good. We went up the inland Island highway to the Port Alberni turnoff and turned around to get onto the southbound lane. There were a bunch of 4-5 year old alders peppering the bank which needed removing. The slope upon which we worked was reminiscent of many a tree-planting day. I always get into my work but the challenge of the slope only upped my zeal to rip it up. Actually, it was Fred who ripped it up seeing as he was on the chainsaw.

We picked up where we left off from yesterday’s work, again, without the disabled chipper. A crew of six of us, one saw, one hellacious slope that the others weren’t too adept at navigating, and the alders. I just rode Fred’s hip on high and let it all hang out! I’ve numerous times been complimented on my work ethic and high rate of output by several of the C.O.’s I’ve toiled for. C.O. Person not excluded. Further to that, I’ve been told how appreciated my efforts have been from time to time, because it helps to bring up the efforts of the others who can often exhibit indifference to the work. Having 15 years of tree-planting under my belt, I’m all too aware of this phenomenon. Nobody on a tree-planting crew likes to be seen as not pulling their weight. A jail house crew is a different breed, though. Many times I’ve heard a fellow inmate say, “don’t work so hard, you’re making us all look bad.” A comment I thought was the sole domain of union workers. My efforts don’t and shouldn’t have any bearing with the others on the crew. At the end of the day we all make the same pittance. As I’ve stated before, I’m just looking to pass my time as quickly as possible. To sit around dog-fucking only prolongs the agonizing drag of time to my mind, so I may as well work. And work I do. Especially today.

Of the numerous incarnations of Crew #2, its many different assemblages of inmate, today’s was a roll-your-sleeves-up group. Peters is the only one who maintains a ‘methodical’ approach to his day. A byproduct of his being here for fifteen months, no doubt. Rick and Brandon are new and I gather don’t realize that slacking is an option. Fred is an experienced saw guy who knows how to work and young Richie, my old roommate with Troy, is a steady, determined worker in his own right. The way I saw it, being the one mainly on the bank with Fred, I just tried to keep up with him. As he dropped the alders which ranged up to 20 feet in height, I proceeded to toss them down to the others so that they could stack them for chipping at a later date. The key to stacking them for easy chipping is to have the butt end of them closest to the road. To simply toss them down haphazardly would only add to the grief of the guys stacking them and slow down progress. So I made the effort of delivering them in the orientation necessary, This required using the ol’ Caber Toss technique. By lifting each tree vertically and then flipping them into the air, the steep slope afforded me a handicap of an extra 50 degrees over your typical Highland Games participant which had me looking like a rising star in the sport. Without that 50 degrees, I wouldn’t have conceived of donning my ‘prison issue’ kilt for the day. Admittedly, it only takes some green beer to make me Irish for a day so culturally I guess I’m a bit easy. Anywho, my goat-like abilities and a combination of balance, strength and a keen feel for touch and physics, had me keeping up with Fred’s saw work. The result of my extra efforts not only helped to facilitate the work of the others but I suspect that they too got caught up in the blistering pace of it all. We kicked some serious alder ass today. Each of us easily did the work of two, without question, and from my perch I could see the smile on Person’s face grow as the day wore on. He was impressed to the point of not being able to contain it. I could tell that he was recognizing Fred’s and my efforts were drawing the others along for the ride. And ride they did. Given the fact that we only average around $3.50/day, our crew’s output was a sight to behold. Over lunch, Person said that he intended to stop on the way back to jail and get us all a popsicle. An obvious show of his pleasure as I’m sure it all reflects on him to his superiors. It’s becoming clear to me that I’ve gained the respect of Person for my approach to work and I’m fine with that. He sees enough duds and dolts roll through his watch, I suspect, and my capabilities register upon him. It’s just like tree-planting in that respect. Okay, it ends right there, admittedly. The pay is in no way similar and I’m still a red to his blue, but once the work starts I’m more of a peer in his eyes. I think he’s to the point of astonished. It makes me laugh actually. I’m likely challenging any preconceived notions he holds about inmates. Purely out for the easy money. ‘Thieves, dealers, fraud artists. All looking for maximum return from minimum effort.’ Well I wouldn’t think of giving anybody the satisfaction of confirming such suspicion. Least of all the ‘heads’ that run this place. Hell, they are all in jobs that drain them of any motivation to work. They just sit around all day and look at us. How agonizingly boring! The midsections of the majority of the C.O.’s here tell of this. I could outwork any of them, hands down! “Who’s looking for the easy pay now?” It’s my way of turning them all on their heads. And I enjoy that!

Trapped Rat – Alan Black

July 20, 2023

trapped rat

There is a rat trapped behind my washing machine.

I can still see its dark grey tail when I shine my small black multi use flashlight behind the machine.

I don’t want rodents in my house; I once woke up to a rat in the kitchen dragging an avocado across the kitchen lino like a character from Goodfellows who was doing a debt collection.

In the recent past I have killed them with traps but taking this rodent head on would bring killing rats to a much more personal and disturbing level.

I don’t own a gun which is the most convenient of killing machines although even a twenty two would be messy and likely put a hole in the floor.

I could probably batter it to death with my blue acrylic pool cue but this would be rather unpleasant for both of us and I would not ever be able to look at the cue the same way.

I have sent a text to my wife and wait for further instruction.

THANK YOU, DENMAN ISLAND!

July 13, 2023

We have officially wrapped up our operations on Denman Island and wanted to take this opportunity to give a HUGE THANK YOU to the fine businesses, colleagues and residents of Denman Island.

You live in a veritable paradise and we were so lucky to work across your island over the past year. Thank you to the fantastic Airbnb’s who helped to house our crew and to the cafe owners, tradesmen and neighbourly neighbours we encountered on a daily basis.

We are grateful to have been given the opportunity to help bring high speed connectivity to Denman Island.

Sincerely,

Driftwood Communications

Green Wizardries with Maxine Rogers

July 13, 2023

Green Wizardries, Reducing Electrical Bills by Maxine Rogers

I managed to persuade a friend of mine to talk about his cost -cutting measures on his BC Hydro bills. He has managed to get is bills down 15%, 18% and 27% from last year’s consumption in the last three billing periods. That is pretty remarkable. Here is what he has been doing.

“I am feeling the bite of inflation so the more money I save on electricity, the more money I have to buy groceries and fuel for the car. I began to try to get our electrical consumption down last summer. My efforts have been pretty successful. I am also interested in dropping our electricity consumption with an eye to going off grid. You need to drop your electricity consumption a great deal to make going off grid possible.

The first conservation measure I tried was to be absolutely religious about turning off lights when they are not being used. I only use electric light for a task and then I make sure it is turned off. I also consolidate the fridges and freezers as soon as I can. This gives me a chance to turn off and clean fridges and freezers and find out what exactly is in the freezers. I also write up a new freezer log when I do this so we know exactly what type of food and how much food we have in the freezers.

I try to turn off as many electrical appliances as I can. We don’t keep things plugged in. I also want to utilize electric heat as little as possible. It is much more cost effective to rely on wood heat. For some people,I think purchasing a heat pump might be a good idea, especially with all the government rebates.

I am not getting a heat pump because I am still fit enough to do firewood. If I wasn’t, I would certainly consider a heat pump. However, a heat pump does not work with my long-term goal of going off grid.

We switched from an electrical stove to a propane stove last summer. This shift the cost from electricity to gas, but the propane can be bought in large quantities and stored for the long term. Our propane stove top and oven both work during power outages and work very well in an off-grid situation.

The ignitors for the stove’s oven and burners are powered by a single D-cell battery. It is a Unique off-grid stove and it is manufactured in Ontario. They have good customer service. These stoves are carried by Courtenay Appliances.

I am thinking of going off grid because I don’t have confidence in the electrical grid remaining viable. In Canada and the United States, there is not enough maintenance being done on the grid. The whole grid is subject to the price shocks and the availability of liquid fuels. All their repair trucks need liquid fuels to keep the lines working and I am not confident about the future of liquid fuel supplies.

One of the major savings we did is accounted for by switching all the lights to LEDs. They are more expensive to buy but last a lot longer and use much less power that incandescent bulbs. I think this is a savings that is in reach of most people.

If you are using electrical heat, it is a good idea to check and replace damaged seals on the doors and windows to exclude drafts. It just makes sense to do this no matter how you are heating your house. We also wear sweaters and slippers in the house in the winter.

We don’t use air conditioning. It is an energy hog. To keep the house cool, we close the blinds or curtains when the sun is shining in. If it is really hot outside, we close the windows early in the morning and open them wide in the cool of the evening and for the night. We use small electrical fans when it is very hot. During the heat dome, we were able to stay comfortable by sleeping wrapped in wet sarongs. This year has been much better so far for excessive heat.”

Letter to the Editor – Dr. Stephen Malthouse

July 13, 2023

Letter to the editor, Grapevine, July 11, 2023

Submitted by Stephen Malthouse, MD

Dear editor,

Dr. Scruton could be right, but he could be wrong (Letter, July 6). How is a layperson to know, if information comes from a respected professional and conflicting views are labelled as propaganda, misinformation, unsupported assertions and disinformation, without explanation or scientific references? Here we have two doctors with completely opposing perspectives. The only conclusion is that you cannot blindly trust the experts, especially public health and the medical profession, and must do your own research and use your own judgment.

As far as I’m concerned, masks do not stop aerosolized flu or corona viruses (as opposed to droplet-spread viruses) (1-4), lockdowns were invented by a 14-year-old science student in Albuquerque, New Mexico (5), the six-foot separation rule was based upon by how far you can spit, and influenza probably disappeared because it was falsely diagnosed as Covid. The PCR test was cycled a minimum of 40 times in Canadian laboratories and produced a 90% (at least) false positivity rate. Even Fauci admits that a meaningful cycle rate is below 35 (6). The overall number of Covid-19 cases was nowhere near the officially reported levels. Millions of false positive “cases” plus biased death attribution, stoked by politicians and the media, was the real cause of the “pandemic”. The average age of the 15,600 Canadians who supposedly “died of Covid-19” in 2020 was 83.8 years. Two-thirds of these people were over the Canadian life expectancy of 82 years.

The life-years lost with Covid-19 vaccination is another story entirely. If we want to protect “at-risk groups”, we should not be giving the Covid-19 vaccine to anybody including seniors, but especially pregnant women, children and infants, who don’t need it and for whom there is inadequate (if any) safety research and no studies showing real-life effectiveness.

The good thing that has come out of the Covid 19 vaccination debacle is that people are beginning to re-examine childhood vaccinations. It is not a big leap to recognize that the criminality and exemption from liability of the pharmaceutical companies and the corruption of Health Canada, the CDC and our public health institutions also apply to everything else these people touch. Would it be surprising, after watching their behaviour over the last 3 years, to find that they are creating their own market?

Meanwhile, Mr. Porteous’ criticism (Letters, June 15, 29), after talking with him on the telephone, appears to be that I promote anti-vaccine literature and contributed, in some way, to an outbreak of pertussis (whooping cough) 9 years ago. I was not involved in his family’s medical care at the time. Nevertheless, a few words about pertussis vaccines might illustrate my concerns.

Pertussis is a bacterial infection that is easily transmitted and has an early phase that is very similar to a regular cold, but may progress into a 2^nd stage which has the characteristic whooping cough. Vaccination did not cause the decline in pertussis, as can be seen from the chart below, using data from England and Wales as an example.

England and Wales whooping cough mortality vs. DTP vaccine coverage from 1901 to 2008. (Record of Mortality in England and Wales for 95 years as provided by the office of National Statistics, published 1997; Health Protection Agency Table: Notification of Deaths, England and Wales, 1970–2008

(Editor: Chart available at https://dissolvingillusions.com/graphs-images/#Charts – half way down the page on the right)

In fact, the pertussis vaccine (cellular) caused more deaths and brain injuries than the natural disease and, in Sweden, was removed from the childhood schedule. From 1981 to 1993, the odds of dying from pertussis in Sweden were about one in 13 million, even when there was no national vaccine program (7). In England, a study published in 1984 showed that there was a decrease in whooping cough hospital admissions and deaths after vaccination rates declined (8). A major report by the Institute of Medicine published in 1994 confirmed that there was a relation between DTP vaccine and brain injury:

“Evidence is consistent with the causal relation for acute encephalopathy, shock and unusual shock-like state.” (9)

Regarding the acellular pertussis vaccine, now used by most developed countries, a study published in 2004 involving 1,793 adolescents and adults who received this newer vaccine, showed that only 20% had measurable concentrations of IgG antibody to pertussis toxin after one month (10). A previous study showed that pertussis antibody levels did not guarantee protection (11). Furthermore, if a vaccinated person contracts real pertussis, the bacteria can wreak more havoc if the vaccine has misdirected the immune system away from specific bacterial signals (antigens) (12).

Like the Covid-19 shot, the pertussis vaccine might reduce symptoms, but does not prevent transmission. In a 2014 study of baboons (similar to humans and theoretically ethical), it was shown that the pertussis vaccine (DTaP) actually increased the duration that the bacteria remained in the throat and extended the period of contagion (13). Furthermore, post-vaccine baboons could catch and harbour pertussis when later exposed, while natural immunity in previously infected baboons was protective. With some reduction in symptoms, a vaccinated person may actually be more dangerous: trusting in the vaccine to prevent transmission while, in fact, presenting an increased risk to their family and community as an asymptomatic carrier – essentially a pertussis version of Typhoid Mary. Meanwhile natural infection can provide protection for up to 30 years, yielding a far better herd immunity than unpredictable, short-lived, and incomplete vaccine-type immunity (14).

Pertussis is no longer a dangerous disease in most cases, unless an infant is unusually susceptible (15). Most people believe that all whooping cough is a serious and easily identifiable disease in children, but it is neither. The “whoop”, which most patients do not exhibit, can be bothersome, but is very unlikely to be life-threatening and the majority of doctors fail to diagnose pertussis because the disease presentation often does not get to the second stage, where the whoop is present. Frequently doctors do not consider whooping cough in children who are fully vaccinated (believing they are protected) or in the adult population (16). Many long-lasting coughs in the older population are actually undiagnosed pertussis cases, as proven by lab testing (17). Treatment of whooping cough with antibiotics is believed by some to shorten its period of transmissibility, but does not reduce severity and may prolong the cough (18).

As medical professionals, we have been indoctrinated regarding childhood vaccinations and the public has been misled by fear-mongering, gas-lighting and censorship. There is a truck-load of vaccines coming our way, mostly mRNA vaccines, for just about every disease imaginable. To make wise healthcare decisions, it will be necessary to uncover what is myth and/or wishful thinking about vaccination. Especially, it is our responsibility to protect our children, while a physician’s duty is to advise his patients accurately. For that reason, I am extending a challenge to Dr. Scruton or any Island(s) doctor to publicly debate the harms and benefits of childhood vaccines, including the Covid jab and its attendant public health measures. Choose any three vaccines and contact the Grapevine when you’re ready to go. I look forward to the opportunity to investigate the complex and important topic of vaccination, about which there is so much “misinformation and disinformation”.

References

(1) J Yan et al. Infectious virus in exhaled breath of symptomatic seasonal influenza cases from a college community. Biological Sciences. No. 115 (5), Jan 2018, pp. 1081-1086.

(2) Article <https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/influenza-general/study-confirms-flu-likely-spreads-aerosols-not-just-coughs-sneezes>

(3) J Lv et al. Aerosol Transmission of Coronavirus and Influenza Virus of Animal Origin. Front. Vet. Sci., Vol. 8, April 2021.

(4) BJ Cowling et al. Aerosol transmission is an important mode of influenza A virus spread. Nat Commun. vol. 4, 2013, p. 1935.

(5) https://stream.org/the-idea-for-lockdowns-started-with-a-high-school-science-project/

(6) <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A867t1JbIrs> (Fauci)

(7) Letter from Victoria Romanus, MD, PhD, Department of Epidemiology Swedish Institute of Infectious Disease Control, Stockholm Sweden, August 25, 1995.

(8) T. M. Pollock, at al. Severity of Whooping Cough In England Before and After the Decline in Pertussis Immunization. Archives of Disease in Childhood, vol. 59, 1984, P. 164.

(9) Adverse Events Associated with Childhood Vaccines: Evidence Bearing on Causality. Vaccine Safety Committee, Institute of Medicine, 1994, p. 316.

(10) JD Cherry et al. Prevalence of antibody to Bordetella pertussis antigens in serum specimens obtained from 1793 adolescents and adults. Clinical Infectious Diseases, volume 39, number 11, December 2004, pp. 1715-1718.

(11) CL Weingart et al. Characterization of Bacterial Immune Response Following Vaccination with Acellular Pertussis Vaccines in Adults. Infection and Immunity, vol. 68, no. 12, December 2000, pp. 7175-7179.

(12) JD Cherry at al. Determination of Serum Antibody to Bordetella Pertussis and Anenylate Cyclase Toxin in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Children and in Children and Adults with Pertussis. Clinical Infectious Diseases, vol. 15, no. 4, February 2004, pp. 502-507.

(13) JM Warfel et al. Acellular pertussis vaccines protect against disease but failed to prevent infection and transmission in a nonhuman primate model. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013.

(14) AM Wendelboe et al. Duration of Immunity against Pertussis After Natural Infection or Vaccination. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, volume 24, number 5, May 2005, p. S58

(15) PE Fine and JA Clarkson. Distribution of Immunity to Pertussis in the Population of England and Wales. Journal of Hygiene, vol 92, no. 1, February 1984, pp. 21-26

(16) M. Bykowski. Pertussis and adults. International Medical News Group, 1999

(17) JD Cherry, MD. The Epidemiology of Pertussis: A Comparison of the Epidemiology of the Disease Pertussis with the Epidemiology of Bordetella Pertussis Infection. Pediatrics, vol. 60, November 1999, P. 2148.

(18) D. Jenkinson. Natural Course of 500 Consecutive Cases of Whooping Cough: A General Practice Population Study. British Medical Journal, volume 310, February 1995, pp. 299-302.

Dead Egg Prize

July 13, 2023

Saturday

July 13, 2023

March 24th, 2007

Saturday

Weekend mornings begin at 8:00 am here on the range. A quick breakfast of bacon, eggs, toast and hashed browns is the standard fare for Saturdays. If you choose to chew your food which many of the guys here don’t you can draw out your dining experience to about 8:20 am and then the boredom surrounds you like an aggressive mob, closing in. By 8:30 am nicotine craving sated the mob is hopelessly all over you. It’s time to think quick. Most here manage to summon some energy from the cold food in their belly to push the mob into retreat through napping. However, for me, I’m rested enough that it isn’t an an option.

A book to delve into might prove effective in keeping boredom at bay. I’ve cracked the cover of a work by Ian McEwen called ‘Saturday.’ Having pushed through the first chapter of five, it looks to be appropriately titled as the story appears to occur within the timeframe of a single day. 270 pages to impart a story that takes place over the course of a Saturday. I suppose parallels can be drawn between such a manipulation of time and that of the seeming length of a do nothing Saturday here in jail. It is long enough a day for me to compose a book though the content would be achingly dry, bereft of much action. I’d need the talents of a Tom Wolfe, or this fellow Ian McEwen, to bathe its pages in rich descriptive and commentary but alas my surroundings lack a certain inspiration. So little colour, so little texture exists here and I’m not just talking about the food!

Speaking of food, today’s lunch came late. Well in fact it was routed to the wrong range. Don’t ask me how these things get mixed up as there are only so many residences in this jail. And if our lunch went someplace else, would not another range have 40+ too many lunches? I mean they haven’t constructed any new living quarters as of late. We were informed that the midday meal would be 20 minutes behind schedule as the kitchen staff needed to prepare another lunch. When it finally arrived the bologna and processed cheese on white sandwiches were refrigerator cold, revealing where they sat prior to their arrival. I suppose it was a good thing though as the chill of the sandwiches helped give the impression that the accompanying soup was room temperature. In fact, the soup was COLD! Mmmm, good thing there was some cold juice to aid in choking down such an appetizing spread. To finish up, we’ve taken to wiping our mouths with course paper towel as the standard napkins have vanished over the past days. I guess with the taxation year coming to an end funds in the provincial coffers are low. If this premise is true then I can’t wait for when the colossal provincial funding ‘egg,’ with its flattened end, eventually kicks over to its rounded edge. I imagine it’ll then be prime rib and lobster for dinners!