Shucking Oysters: Skippy, Scrappy, or the Outsider
By Alex Allen
If you think you’ve had enough of politics, you’re not alone. I see the fatigue everywhere. We’ve watched the relentless campaign cycle (and aftermath) down south and now in Canada, we are winding down to our big election day. Have you ever seen Canadians so engaged? A new record was set with two million votes cast on the first day of advance polls. Canada may be a four-party country, but in this election it is a binary battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Nationally, pollsters have the Liberals at 43% and the Conservatives at 37%. Regionally, with no surprise, the Liberals are well ahead in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec; while Conservative support is strongest in Alberta and the Prairies. Even though BC has “been a sanctuary” for the NDP and Greens in past federal elections, some analysts have said that strategic voting could “push those parties to the brink,” making our province one of the most unpredictable regions to call.
David Black, associate professor, Royal Roads University, said Trump’s tariffs and threats have shifted the election. “What we’re seeing … is that people who might have been comfortable voting for an NDP candidate because they like the party, they like the values – or likewise doing the same for the Greens – are less comfortable doing that because it might be seen as a kind of luxury.”
Elizabeth May’s Saanich-Gulf Islands riding is one to watch. Richard Johnston, professor emeritus of political science, UBC, said what makes this riding unpredictable is the uncertainty about where the Green vote will go. While it may be safe to assume the NDP vote may switch to the Liberals, the Greens’ support comes from multiple sources because it can be a “parking spot” for “disgruntled voters from all directions.”
In our riding, NDP Gord Johns has been our federal voice for over a decade. “Obviously, it’s the most important election of them all, especially with what’s happening with Donald Trump and his threat to our own country’s autonomy,” said Johns. “The support has been incredible. Never seen support like it. We’ve more signs on lawns than we’ve ever had before.”
Conservative candidate, Kris McNicol, says he’s hearing people want change. A businessman of 24 years, Kris says the rising cost of housing, groceries and increasing crime all need to be addressed in a new way. Liberal candidate Brian Cameron felt compelled to run after becoming a father. “Also, my wife and I are renters and we’re feeling the same hardship as so many people and just like many people across Canada, I haven’t felt adequately represented.” Green candidate Chris Markevich, also a first-time candidate, is disappointed with the absence of climate change in the conversation. “The problems are getting worse. It’s not getting better, and it affects every facet of our lives, from public safety regarding floods or fires to food security.”
Both Carney and Poilievre have often shared similar campaign promises. In the arts, however, they differ. The Liberals would provide an initial $150-million annual funding increase to CBC/Radio-Canada, while the Conservatives plan to defund the CBC but maintain French Radio-Canada. With hints of DOGE, the Conservatives also plan to cut the federal public service (hopefully, with an Exacto knife not a chainsaw) and have public servants monitored on efficiency.
If you missed the English language leader’s debate, it was like watching a game of Whack-a-Carney. Poilievre, Blanchet and Singh all took swipes at Carney within the first 10 minutes. The three leaders did have exchanges with each other, but mostly tried to keep “laser-focused” on Carney. At one point, each leader was given an option to pose a question to one of their opponents. All chose Carney, who joked, “I’m going to ask myself a question,” before posing one to Poilievre. Carney did manage to keep his cool despite Poilievre’s needling and interruptions.
When asked, what is the biggest security threat facing Canada: Poilievre said the biggest “physical” threat is “the rampant crime wave that is running out of control.” Singh said the biggest threat is illegal guns and drugs coming over the border and Carney said the biggest security threat to Canada is China.
Singh’s interrupting was beyond distraction. Poilievre was the target of Singh’s constant interjections, so much so that Carney told the NDP leader to let his Conservative rival finish his point. As CTV News political analyst, Scott Reid said, “Singh routinely interrupting Poilievre is a continuing gift to Carney. It’s a very deliberate strategy. But how it helps the NDP leader is a mystery to me.”
After the debate, Singh defended his interruptions. “I’m a scrappy guy. I want to fight for people. I’m gonna fight for the things I care about,” Singh said. He added: “I’m going to push back when people say things that are wrong and things that are going to harm Canadians.” Singh wasn’t pushing back, he was shoving, which was rude and unprofessional.
Conservative campaign strategist Kory Teneycke ominously shared: “If the polls hold the way they are, there’s a very good chance that he [Singh] will not be a leader and that the NDP will not be an official party in the House of Commons.”
Let’s be clear, this election is all about who can handle Lord Rump, and more importantly, it’s about our nationalism. As Gary Mason wrote in the Globe and Mail, “if nothing else, the US president has incited many Canadians to think more deeply about their country, to ponder the questions of who we are and what we stand for.” So, keep calm and vote, April 28.
